Will Junior Caminero win AL Hank Aaron Award
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$129
14 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
174 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ben Rice win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Ben Rice win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Ben Rice
KXMLBALHAARON-26-BRIC
Cluster 2
Will Yordan Álvarez win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Yordan Álvarez win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Yordan Álvarez
KXMLBALHAARON-26-YALV
Cluster 3
Will Nick Kurtz win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Nick Kurtz win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Nick Kurtz
KXMLBALHAARON-26-NKUR
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Judge win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Aaron Judge win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Aaron Judge
KXMLBALHAARON-26-AJUD
Cluster 5
Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Brent Rooker win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Brent Rooker
KXMLBALHAARON-26-BROO
Cluster 6
Will Cal Raleigh win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Cal Raleigh win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Cal Raleigh
KXMLBALHAARON-26-CRAL
Cluster 7
Will Gunnar Henderson win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Gunnar Henderson win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Gunnar Henderson
KXMLBALHAARON-26-GHEN
Cluster 8
Will Junior Caminero win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Junior Caminero win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Junior Caminero
KXMLBALHAARON-26-JCAM
Cluster 9
Will Julio Rodríguez win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Julio Rodríguez win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Julio Rodríguez
KXMLBALHAARON-26-JROD
Cluster 10
Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Mike Trout win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Mike Trout
KXMLBALHAARON-26-MTRO
Cluster 11
Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Roman Anthony win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Roman Anthony
KXMLBALHAARON-26-RANT
Cluster 12
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXMLBALHAARON-26-RWIT
Cluster 13
Will Wyatt Langford win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Wyatt Langford win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Wyatt Langford
KXMLBALHAARON-26-WLAN
Cluster 14
Will Zach Neto win AL Hank Aaron Award
Will Zach Neto win AL Hank Aaron Award?: Zach Neto
KXMLBALHAARON-26-ZNET
Analysis
The 9% probability reflects the betting market's assessment that Junior Caminero will be the American League's top hitter in 2026, as measured by the Hank Aaron Award voting. Caminero's current price sits well below front-runners like Aaron Judge (31%) and Shohei Ohtani (42% for the NL), suggesting limited confidence in his candidacy at this stage of the season. The probability would rise if Caminero establishes himself as a consistent offensive leader through mid-season performance metrics like batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The award determination occurs at season's end following the regular season's conclusion in early October, when voters assess full-year statistical performance. Between now and then, monthly performance trends, injury status of top contenders, and relative statistical accumulation will refine market expectations.
- ›Caminero's cumulative hitting statistics (batting average, OBP, slugging) through the 2026 season relative to other AL contenders
- ›Injury status and availability of higher-probability candidates like Aaron Judge and established offensive leaders
- ›The competitive landscape in the AL—whether scoring environment and roster quality favors certain players' statistical accumulation
- ›Caminero's age, experience level, and historical performance trajectory compared to voters' typical award-winning profiles
- ›The voting process timeline and any mid-season performance surges that shift market participant expectations in real-time
What moved the line
- Jun 15Yordan Álvarez↑6pp35→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Yordan Álvarez↑4pp41→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Nick Kurtz↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Yordan Álvarez↓3pp45→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Aaron Judge↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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