Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by May 31?
This contract is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$231
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x98055a1a…3a06
Market snapshot
May 31 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by May 31?. The displayed quote is 7¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $60. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
May 31
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
7¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 31, 2026
24h volume
$60
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC · 4m ago
Venue identifier: 0x98055a1af9301ed9cf054a3988a5ede22cf7f0cb18e08fb97f1bff2235423a06. Family volume: $231.
Price history
7¢ current
−43¢Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.608982° N, 37.720231° E in Viroliubivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+1.png Intersection Location in Viroliubivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+2.png Viroliubivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Nj4j57W7EW9qUPmRA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x98055a1a…3a06
Event family
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$231
Outcomes
1
Highest price
May 31 7¢
Current share
100%
May 31
polymarket · 0x98055a1af9301ed9cf054a3988a5ede22cf7f0cb18e08fb97f1bff2235423a06
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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