Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$60
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?: May 31
0x98055a…3a06
Analysis
This probability estimates a 6% chance that Russian forces will capture Viroliubivka by a specified deadline. The low probability reflects the current military situation along this section of the front, where Russian forces would need to achieve significant territorial advances. The main factors pushing this probability would be measurable changes in military momentum—such as breakthrough operations, concentrated force deployments, or collapse of defensive positions—while stable front lines or Ukrainian counteroffensives would pressure it lower. The probability will likely shift based on actual combat reports and verified territorial changes over the coming weeks, with higher near-term deadlines (May-June 2026) naturally carrying lower probabilities than longer timeframes.
- ›Current distance and defensive strength between Russian forces and Viroliubivka relative to observed recent advance rates
- ›Comparative probabilities for larger neighboring towns (Kostyantynivka at 77% by year-end vs 27% by June-end) suggest front-line positions change incrementally
- ›Trading volume and price discovery on related contracts indicate uncertainty about Russian offensive capability in this sector through mid-2026
- ›Historical pace of Russian territorial gains in this region over the past 6-12 months compared to gains required to meet the deadline
- ›Availability of Russian reserves and logistical capacity for sustained offensive operations versus Ukrainian defensive reinforcement patterns
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.