Sam Liccardo · KXCAPRIMARY-1626
Sam Liccardo is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXCAPRIMARY-1626.
Price history
99¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Sam Liccardo advances in the 2026 CA-16 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Sam Liccardo
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Sam Liccardo 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-1626-SLIC
May 19, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$152
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · KXCAPRIMARY-1626
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Sam Liccardo advances in the 2026 CA-16 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCAPRIMARY-1626-SLIC
Event family
KXCAPRIMARY-1626.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Sam Liccardo 96¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.