SimpleFunctions

Scotland · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C

Scotland is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C.

Price history

70¢ current

2¢
70¢80¢
May 3, 2026May 29, 2026

Contract brief

If Scotland is one of the teams to qualify from Group C for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Scotland

Rank

#3 of 4

Leader

Brazil 97¢

Range

8¢-97¢

Family volume

$335

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C-SCO

Jun 1, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

70¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 1, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

70¢

Ask

74¢

Spread

24h volume

$178

Family rank

#3 of 4

4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$335

Orderbook snapshot

70 / 74¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
70¢297
67¢54
66¢3.5K
65¢2.0K
64¢2.0K
AskSize
74¢5.9K
76¢400
78¢2.2K
79¢2.0K
80¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Scotland is one of the teams to qualify from Group C for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C-SCO

SF Signal
SF Index
1063.07
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$335

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Brazil 97¢

Current share

53%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

390.5%

IY (No)

2126.1%

Adj IY

1063%

CRI

2

Overround

1.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

390.5%
2126.1%
Adj IY
1063%
2
Overround
1.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.