40+ · Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31
40+ is priced at 17¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?.
Price history
17¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Outcome
40+
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
20+ 51¢
Range
3¢-51¢
Family volume
$1.1M
Identifier
0xe02033ce...d054
May 26, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$11K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$1.1M
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xe02033ce…d054
Event family
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.1M
Outcomes
4
Highest price
20+ 51¢
Current share
20%
20+
polymarket · 0x9bdb4d01b7797953c92c03e98cf7d36e62543b37972435e6b4a1c74f4200b108
40+
polymarket · 0xe02033cef06e942fbe1fdc9cc259abe9682265d349642598ab27ad677083d054
60+
polymarket · 0x4dec0ddb49e5b4c025ee04135a4e1c99c47cb47e12113056f84f41979fc4e4de
80+
polymarket · 0xd302682785cc2541dc5f4cc4af51fa881667b603d4ee27f432ca57772ce5e8b2
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.575
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.