Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Leader sits at 24% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
20+
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
40+
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$117K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 60+
0x4dec0d…e4de
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 20+
0x9bdb4d…b108
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 40+
0xe02033…d054
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on a single day between now and May 31, 2026. At 52%, the market currently views this as slightly more likely than not, though the 80+ ship threshold trades at just 3 cents, suggesting very low confidence in exceptionally high traffic. The Strait handles roughly 20-25% of global seaborne petroleum trade, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on geopolitical tensions, weather, maintenance schedules, and regional conflict activity. The resolution depends entirely on actual ship counts recorded by maritime tracking services on any given day through month-end. Factors pushing probabilities up or down include escalations or de-escalations in regional tensions, shipping disruptions, or changes in global oil demand that affect routing decisions.
- ›Historical baseline: average daily transits through Hormuz typically range 20-25 ships; market is pricing 20+ as slightly favored
- ›Regional geopolitical risk: any military incidents, sanctions enforcement, or threat escalation in the Persian Gulf would increase transit uncertainty and volatility
- ›Oil market dynamics: crude prices and demand directly influence shipping patterns; current price environment affects routing decisions and congestion
- ›Weather and infrastructure: seasonal conditions, port maintenance, or chokepoint blockages would reduce transits and shift probabilities toward lower thresholds
- ›Resolution mechanism: daily counts depend on UKMTO, IHS Markit, or similar maritime tracking data; definition of 'transit' and counting methodology are critical
What moved the line
- May 2740+↑6pp14→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2640+↓3pp17→14¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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