Spain · KXWCROUND-26FINAL
Spain is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXWCROUND-26FINAL.
Price history
29¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Spain is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Spain
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Spain 28¢
Range
1¢-28¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
KXWCROUND-26FINAL-ESP
May 23, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$594
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCROUND-26FINAL
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Spain is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Identifier
KXWCROUND-26FINAL-ESP
Event family
KXWCROUND-26FINAL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Spain 28¢
Current share
7%
Spain
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-ESP
France
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-FRA
England
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-ENG
Portugal
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-POR
Brazil
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-BRA
Norway
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-NOR
Korea Republic
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-KOR
Scotland
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-SCO
Mexico
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-MEX
USA
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-USA
Qatar
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-QAT
Morocco
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-MAR
Switzerland
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-SUI
Canada
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-CAN
South Africa
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-RSA
Bosnia and Herzegovina
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26FINAL-BIH
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 29% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.