SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets — 4 contracts, SF signal on every row.

4 live Kalshi contracts (153 audited). Median implied probability sits at 50%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 8.8pp · cheapest KXWCROUND-26FINAL-ESP.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCROUND.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXWCROUND
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCROUND
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXWCROUND",
    "label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 4,
    "volume24hSum": 380089.82,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.04052
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+165.0
Vol Flow$380.1K-63%
min $195.6Kmax $1.2M
Breadth100%0.0pp
min -33%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:00 UTC
Jul 6past 7d · UTCJul 13 · 04:23

Live contracts

4

Median IY

50¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$380.1K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets — liquidity topography (4 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 1234.5 → 2557.1%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d2557.11895.81234.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets

Showing top 4 of 4

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Argentina45¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 827%Resid —$196.4K
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: England54¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$100.2K
Will France qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: France58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$66.1K
Will Spain qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Spain40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$17.3K
4 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 Jul 2026 04:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCROUND →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →