SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets — 152 contracts, SF signal on every row.

152 live Kalshi contracts (153 audited). Median implied probability sits at 12%. 12 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXWCROUND-26SEMI-ENG +26c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 15.9pp · cheapest KXWCROUND-26FINAL-CRO · richest KXWCROUND-26QUAR-HTI.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCROUND.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXWCROUND
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCROUND
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXWCROUND",
    "label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 152,
    "volume24hSum": 20168.31,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00057
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$20.2K+166%
min $5.4Kmax $21.4K
Breadth-50%+50.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:45 UTC
May 17past 6d · UTCMay 23 · 22:23

Live contracts

152

Median IY

12¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$20.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+26¢

KXWCROUND-26SEMI-ENG

2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets — liquidity topography (top 63 of 152 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 145.8 → 16483.2%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d16483.28314.5145.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets

Showing top 20 of 152

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Portugal qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Portugal16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 483%Resid —$6.4K
Will Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: Argentina46¢
IY 598%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 243%Resid —$2.1K
Will France qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: France41¢
IY 734%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 261%Resid —$1.6K
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: England34¢
IY 990%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
Will Spain qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Spain45¢
IY 623%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 262%Resid —$1.2K
Will USA qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: USA7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$862
Will France qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: France27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$789
Will Mexico qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: Mexico52¢
IY 477%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 274%Resid —$660
Will Spain qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Spain28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$594
Will Morocco qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Morocco7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$376
Will USA qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: USA21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$316
Will Japan qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: Japan37¢
IY 880%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$278
Will Norway qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: Norway27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$274
Will Portugal qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Portugal28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$227
Will Australia qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: Australia13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$205
Will Sweden qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Sweden4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$202
Will Mexico qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: Mexico20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 722%Resid —$198
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: England23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$197
Will Norway qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Norway6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$169
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: England51¢
IY 490%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$163
152 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets

From market_changes
17h agoKalshi
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: England
31¢5→31 (+26)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: England
5¢29→5 (-24)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: Argentina
54¢70→54 (-16)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: England
63¢74→63 (-11)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: England
47¢56→47 (-9)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will Mexico qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: Mexico
17¢25→17 (-8)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: England
24¢31→24 (-7)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will France qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?: France
53¢59→53 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 May 2026 23:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCROUND →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →