Will Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 7¢, implying only a 7% chance that both Hilton and Bianco emerge as the top two finishers in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 7¢, implying only a 7% chance that both Hilton and Bianco emerge as the top two finishers in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary. The asymmetric implied yield of 1,685% for Yes positions versus 4.7% for No reflects the massive risk premium on the long side, though modest liquidity of $2.8k open interest and a 2¢ spread suggest limited conviction either way. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days indicates some accumulation of bullish positions, but with 412 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this remains a speculative long-shot bet dependent on significant political realignment in California's gubernatorial race.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco advance in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN-SHILCBIA yes 100