SimpleFunctions

Taylor Swift · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUL01

Taylor Swift is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 17¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUL01.

Price history

28¢ current

+16¢
10¢20¢30¢
May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If Taylor Swift is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Taylor Swift

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Olivia Rodrigo 94¢

Range

1¢-94¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUL01-TAY

May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

28¢

Spread

17¢

Reported volume

$403

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUL01

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 28¢

Kalshi
17¢ spread
BidSize
11¢250
10¢400
AskSize
28¢1
29¢249
40¢400
94¢17
95¢35

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Taylor Swift is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUL01-TAY

SF Signal
SF Index
8740.84
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

8740.8%

IY (No)

133.5%

Adj IY

8741%

CRI

8

RV

1595%

VR

1.91

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8740.8%
133.5%
Adj IY
8741%
8
RV
1595%
VR
1.91
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
4.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.