Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 14¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 3¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$84K
Best sibling
June 30 2¢
Ticker
0xf31dc5f1…a919
Market snapshot
December 31 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 14¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $52. In the Will Tesla release Optimus by...? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 2 by current quote across 2 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
December 31
Family rank
#1 of 2
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
14¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$52
Family context
2 outcomes · Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
Quote range
2¢-14¢
Family leader
December 31 14¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 6m ago
Venue identifier: 0xf31dc5f107bb556840fffa2bd0a503f891d82e61b0b7764e60cd92faec52a919. Family volume: $84K.
Price history
14¢ current
−8¢Orderbook snapshot
12 / 15¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xf31dc5f1…a919
Event family
Will Tesla release Optimus by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$84K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
December 31 14¢
Current share
7%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
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