Will Tesla release Optimus by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
14%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$52
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Tesla release Optimus by
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?: December 31
0xf31dc5…a919
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Tesla will deliver a commercially available Optimus humanoid robot by a specified deadline. At 13%, traders assess this outcome as unlikely within the timeframe, suggesting skepticism about Tesla's development timeline or the definition of 'release.' The probability could shift based on Tesla's quarterly earnings calls and product demonstrations, where management typically provides updates on robotics progress. The single biggest catalyst would be an official announcement from Tesla with a concrete delivery date and customer availability plan, which would either validate near-term deployment or push expectations further out. Current market pricing suggests participants view the technical and manufacturing challenges as substantial relative to Tesla's historical timelines for new products.
- ›Tesla has not publicly committed to a specific Optimus release date; any official announcement with a defined deadline would materially impact contract value
- ›Previous Tesla product launches have experienced delays relative to initial projections, informing trader skepticism about aggressive robotics timelines
- ›The contract's resolution criteria—what constitutes 'release' (prototype demo, pre-order availability, limited production, or mass market)—directly affects interpretation of whether the threshold is met
- ›Competitive development of humanoid robots by Boston Dynamics, Figure AI, and others could influence market assessment of Tesla's relative progress
- ›Manufacturing capacity and supply chain readiness for humanoid production remain unproven at scale, creating uncertainty distinct from purely technical feasibility
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.