Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31 is priced at 42¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 34¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
42¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Bears franchise of the NFL officially announce a plan to move and play their home games permanently anywhere outside of the state of Illinois by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, any temporary change in venue will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, no naming changes will be taken into consideration, only official announcements about the home playing field of the Chicago Bears franchise. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chicago Bears franchise and/or the NFL.
Outcome
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
0x0d044235...91d3
May 27, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
16¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Bears franchise of the NFL officially announce a plan to move and play their home games permanently anywhere outside of the state of Illinois by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, any temporary change in venue will not be considered. For the purpose of this market, no naming changes will be taken into consideration, only official announcements about the home playing field of the Chicago Bears franchise. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chicago Bears franchise and/or the NFL.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x0d044235…91d3
Event family
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31 42¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.