Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Democratic party · GOVPARTYCA-26
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Democratic party is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 87¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside GOVPARTYCA-26.
Price history
88¢ current
Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Democratic party 87¢
Range
11¢-87¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
GOVPARTYCA-26-D
May 24, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$563
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYCA-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYCA-26-D
Event family
GOVPARTYCA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Democratic party 87¢
Current share
31%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.469
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.