SimpleFunctions
KalshiNov 3, 2027549 days left

Will the Republican party win the governorship in California

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

12¢
$476K volume
$349K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$476K

Best sibling

Ticker

GOVPARTYCA-26-R

Price history

12¢ current

25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 10, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 12¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
11¢2.7K
10¢8
10¢8
10¢750
10¢2.8K
AskSize
12¢1.4K
13¢3.9K
14¢8.9K
15¢8.0K
16¢4.6K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

GOVPARTYCA-26-R

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$476K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will the Republican party win the governorship in California 12¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.412

Observability

low

Event type

political

Full indicator table

598.5%
7.4%
Adj IY
269%
9
7.000
LAS
0.10

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogpolitics

Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds

In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index