Will the Republican party win the governorship in California: Steve Hilton · GOVPARTYCA-26
Will the Republican party win the governorship in California: Steve Hilton is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYCA-26.
Price history
5¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Republican party win the governorship in California: Steve Hilton
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Xavier Becerra 95¢
Range
5¢-95¢
Family volume
$435
Identifier
GOVPARTYCA-26-R
Aug 1, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$426
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYCA-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$435
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYCA-26-R
Event family
GOVPARTYCA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$435
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California: Xavier Becerra 95¢
Current share
98%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.396
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.