Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Democratic party · GOVPARTYOR-26
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Democratic party is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside GOVPARTYOR-26.
Price history
81¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Democratic party 81¢
Range
15¢-81¢
Family volume
$207
Identifier
GOVPARTYOR-26-D
May 24, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$82
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYOR-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$207
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYOR-26-D
Event family
GOVPARTYOR-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$207
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Democratic party 81¢
Current share
40%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.