Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon: Christine Drazan · GOVPARTYOR-26
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon: Christine Drazan is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYOR-26.
Price history
16¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon: Christine Drazan
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Tina Kotek 81¢
Range
17¢-81¢
Family volume
$699
Identifier
GOVPARTYOR-26-R
May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$688
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYOR-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$699
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYOR-26-R
Event family
GOVPARTYOR-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$699
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon: Tina Kotek 81¢
Current share
98%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.