Before Jan 1, 2028 · Will the FDA approve CagriSema before
Before Jan 1, 2028 is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 62¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the FDA approve CagriSema before.
Price history
61¢ current
+59¢Contract brief
If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2028
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Before Jul 1, 2027 81¢
Range
22¢-81¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-28JAN01
May 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
60¢
Ask
62¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$401
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the FDA approve CagriSema before
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
60 / 62¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-28JAN01
Event family
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2027 81¢
Current share
0%
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-27JUL01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-27JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-28JAN01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26OCT01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26JUL01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 61% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.