Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028
Leader sits at 81% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
586 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26JUL01
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-28JAN01
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-27JUL01
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-27JAN01
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXFDAAPPROVE-CAG-26OCT01
What moved the line
- May 18Before Jan 1, 2027↑16pp56→72¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Before Jan 1, 2027↓8pp72→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 18Before Jul 1, 2027↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Before Jan 1, 2028↑4pp51→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Before Jul 1, 2026↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmārelast 44% · 0d
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Marketslast 82% · 0d
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FClast 56% · 0d
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 31% · 1d
- Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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