Before Jan 1, 2032 · Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 20
Before Jan 1, 2032 is priced at 57¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 57¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
57¢ current
+55¢Contract brief
If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2032
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2032 57¢
Range
22¢-57¢
Family volume
$12
Identifier
KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-32JAN01
May 27, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
57¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$53
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2032
Family volume
$12
Orderbook snapshot
57 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2032
Identifier
KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-32JAN01
Event family
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2032 57¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2032
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-32JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2030
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-30JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2031
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-31JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-29JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-28JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 57% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.