Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2032 · 2048d

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

54%

Before Jan 1, 2032

0¢runner-up 49¢leader 54¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Before Jan 1, 2030

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2032

2048 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?: Before Jan 1, 203254¢$0 Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 203049¢$0 Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 203146¢$0 Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 202944¢$0

30-day trend

Before Jan 1, 203254¢Before Jan 1, 203049¢Before Jan 1, 203146¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 20

4 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-29JAN01

44¢+7pp$0K→

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?: Before Jan 1, 2032

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-32JAN01

54¢+2pp$0K→

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-31JAN01

46¢−3pp$0K→

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-30JAN01

49¢+2pp$0K→

What moved the line

May 17Before Jan 1, 2032↑14pp38→52¢ · Kalshi
May 17Before Jan 1, 2031↑8pp41→49¢ · Kalshi
May 18Before Jan 1, 2029↑7pp37→44¢ · Kalshi
May 17Before Jan 1, 2030↑7pp39→46¢ · Kalshi
May 22Before Jan 1, 2031↓3pp49→46¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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