What is the current probability for "Will the gold close price be above 4610 USD/t.oz on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 59¢ (59% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 4, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the gold close price be above 4610 USD/t.oz on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 21484.6% and 32094.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

KalshiMay 4, 20261 days left

Will the gold close price be above 4610 USD/t.oz on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 13¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

59¢

$2K volume

$1K liquidity

33% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$5K

Best sibling

above $4620 46¢

Ticker

KXGOLDD-26MAY0417-T4610

Price history

59¢ current

+30¢

May 1, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

51 / 64¢

Kalshi

13¢ spread

BidSize

51¢54

50¢85

49¢60

47¢101

21¢119

AskSize

64¢198

65¢168

75¢14

77¢5

81¢161

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4610 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 4, 2026

Identifier

KXGOLDD-26MAY0417-T4610

Event family

Will the gold close price be above 4.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$5K

Outcomes

Highest price

above $4400 91¢

Current share

25%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

above $4610

kalshi · KXGOLDD-26MAY0417-T4610

55¢$1K$1K0.1

above $4620