Lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's above $14000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT
Above $14M is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 57¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 28¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1.
Price history
56¢ current
+37¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's is above $14M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $14M
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Above $12M 73¢
Range
4¢-73¢
Family volume
$24
Identifier
KXART-TWO26-14000000
May 24, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
57¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
28¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$24
Orderbook snapshot
57 / 85¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's is above $14M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXART-TWO26-14000000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above $12M 73¢
Current share
4%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.