Lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's above $16000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT
Above $16M is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1.
Price history
41¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's is above $16M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $16M
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Above $10M 77¢
Range
40¢-77¢
Family volume
$144
Identifier
KXART-TWO26-16000000
May 27, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$77
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$144
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's is above $16M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXART-TWO26-16000000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Two Studies for Self-Portrait by Francis Bacon on Sotheby's be above $1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$144
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above $10M 77¢
Current share
53%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 41% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.