Margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election above 15%
Andy Burnham, ≥15% is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
7¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Andy Burnham, ≥15%
Rank
#9 of 10
Leader
Andy Burnham, 3-6% 13¢
Range
5¢-13¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P57
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$955
Family rank
#9 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Jun 18, 2027
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 18, 2027
Identifier
KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P57
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Andy Burnham, 3-6% 13¢
Current share
14%
Andy Burnham, 3-6%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P4
Andy Burnham, 0-3%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P1
Andy Burnham, 6-9%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P7
Robert Kenyon, 3-6%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P4
Andy Burnham, 9-12%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P10
Robert Kenyon, ≥9%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P54
Robert Kenyon, 0-3%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P1
Robert Kenyon, 6-9%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-RKEN-P7
Andy Burnham, 12-15%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P13
Andy Burnham, ≥15%
kalshi · KXMAKERFIELDMOV-MAKERFIELDBY27JAN01-ABUR-P57
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.