Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract prices the likelihood that Andy Burnham will win the Makerfield by-election with a margin between 3% and 6%. The 13% probability reflects modest market conviction in this specific outcome, with traders currently favoring narrower margins (0–3%) at 13% and wider ones (6–9%) at 16%. The Burnham campaign's strength in the region and the fragmentation of opposition support are key variables; a tighter race could push this probability higher, while decisive polling showing larger or smaller margins would shift weight to adjacent outcomes. The by-election result itself will resolve this contract definitively. Until then, pre-election polling trends, campaign spending, and turnout estimates shape market expectations. The distributed probabilities across margin bands suggest genuine uncertainty about whether Burnham wins by a comfortable or decisive margin.

• ›Pre-election polling showing Burnham's lead between 3–6 percentage points would directly support this outcome; published polls deviating significantly in either direction would reduce its probability
• ›Turnout patterns in Makerfield relative to recent elections affect margin realization, since lower opposition turnout could widen Burnham's margin beyond 6%
• ›Market pricing shows a cumulative ~27% probability for Burnham margins of 6% or wider, indicating traders expect a stronger performance; this outcome at 13% is thus relatively underweighted
• ›Campaign momentum and late-stage endorsements or gaffes in the final weeks before polling day could shift vote share and push actual margins into or out of this band
• ›Historical by-election results in similar constituencies provide baseline expectations; significant deviation from recent Makerfield voting patterns would alter the probability substantially

What moved the line

• May 27Andy Burnham, 12-15%↑9pp8→17¢ · Kalshi
• May 27Andy Burnham, 6-9%↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds