Margin of victory for Brad Raffensperger in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary above 0%
Brad Raffensperger wins is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 12 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
1¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Brad Raffensperger in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Brad Raffensperger wins
Rank
#6 of 12
Leader
Burt Jones, 3-6% 21¢
Range
1¢-21¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BRAF-P50
May 27, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#6 of 12
12 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
May 19, 2027
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Brad Raffensperger in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 19, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BRAF-P50
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Burt Jones, 3-6% 21¢
Current share
0%
Burt Jones, 3-6%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BJON-P4
Burt Jones, 6-9%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BJON-P7
Rick Jackson, 6-9%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P7
Rick Jackson, 9-12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P10
Rick Jackson, 12-15%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P13
Burt Jones, 0-3%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BJON-P1
Brad Raffensperger wins
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BRAF-P50
Rick Jackson, 0-3%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P1
Rick Jackson, 3-6%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P4
Rick Jackson, ≥15%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-RJAC-P57
Burt Jones, 9-12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BJON-P10
Burt Jones, ≥12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVGANOMR26-BJON-P56
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.