Margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election above 20%
Karen Bass, ≥20% is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 13 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
6¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Karen Bass, ≥20%
Rank
#7 of 13
Leader
Spencer Pratt wins 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P60
May 26, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#7 of 13
13 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Apr 28, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 28, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P60
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Spencer Pratt wins 24¢
Current share
0%
Spencer Pratt wins
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-SPRA-P50
Karen Bass, 8-12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P10
Karen Bass, 0-4%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P2
Karen Bass, 4-8%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P6
Karen Bass, 12-16%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P14
Karen Bass, 16-20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P18
Karen Bass, ≥20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-KBAS-P60
Nithya Raman, 8-12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P10
Nithya Raman, 12-16%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P14
Nithya Raman, 16-20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P18
Nithya Raman, 0-4%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P2
Nithya Raman, 4-8%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P6
Nithya Raman, ≥20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-MAYORLA2026-NRAM-P60
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.