Margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff between 3% and 6%
Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
21¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% 38¢
Range
1¢-38¢
Family volume
$237
Identifier
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P4
May 29, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
Family volume
$237
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
Identifier
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P4
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$237
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% 38¢
Current share
0%
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P1
Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P1
Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P4
Roberto Sánchez, 3-6%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P4
Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RALI-P10
Keiko Fujimori, 6-9%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P7
Roberto Sánchez, 6-9%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P7
Roberto Sánchez, ≥12%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P56
Keiko Fujimori, ≥12%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P56
Roberto Sánchez, 9-12%
kalshi · KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P10
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.