Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%
Spread
86pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
338 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?: Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RALI-P10
Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P1
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P1
Analysis
This question asks whether the 2026 Peru presidential runoff will be decided by a narrow 3-6 point margin for Roberto Sánchez. Currently priced at 97%, this reflects expectations of a very close election outcome in that specific range. Market participants are weighing polling data, voter preferences, and regional support distributions. The current pricing suggests very high confidence that if a runoff occurs, the winner's margin will fall within this band rather than being either tighter (0-3%) or wider (9-12% or beyond). Resolution depends on final official election results from Peru's electoral authority. Key movements would occur if fresh polling significantly shifts projected margin ranges or if institutional changes affect voter turnout and regional voting patterns.
- ›Recent polling aggregates and their stated margins of error relative to the 3-6% band
- ›Demographic and geographic voting patterns that suggest whether regional polarization produces narrow or decisive margins
- ›Historical runoff margins in Peruvian presidential elections and whether 3-6% represents a typical or atypical outcome range
- ›Turnout projections and whether differential participation between coastal and highland regions affects final margin calculations
- ›Official preliminary results (ONPE actas) reported on election night that would clarify the actual margin trajectory
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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