Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%
Leader sits at 38% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$237
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
374 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P1
Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Roberto Sánchez, 6-9%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P7
Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%?: Roberto Sánchez, ≥12%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P56
Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Roberto Sánchez, 3-6%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RSAN-P4
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?: Keiko Fujimori, 9-12%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-RALI-P10
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Keiko Fujimori, 6-9%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P7
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P4
Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P1
What moved the line
- May 22Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%↓4pp45→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Keiko Fujimori, 3-6%↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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