56° or below · Will the minimum temperature
56° or below is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 6 inside Will the minimum temperature.
Price history
6¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the minimum temperature recorded at Philadelphia for May 28, 2026, is less than 57° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
56° or below
Rank
#5 of 6
Leader
61° to 62° 27¢
Range
5¢-27¢
Family volume
$9K
Identifier
KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-T57
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#5 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the minimum temperature
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$9K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the minimum temperature recorded at Philadelphia for May 28, 2026, is less than 57° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-T57
Event family
Will the minimum temperature.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
61° to 62° 27¢
Current share
36%
61° to 62°
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-B61.5
57° to 58°
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-B57.5
59° to 60°
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-B59.5
63° to 64°
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-B63.5
56° or below
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-T57
65° or above
kalshi · KXLOWTPHIL-26MAY28-T64
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.