SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 above $4.00 in February 2027

Above $4.00 is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $.

Price history

51¢ current

+48¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $4.00

Rank

#1 of 7

Leader

Above $4.00 55¢

Range

25¢-55¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KXB200MS-27FEB-4.000

Jun 18, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

51¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

55¢

Ask

56¢

Spread

24h volume

$25

Family rank

#1 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

55 / 56¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
55¢1.2K
52¢300
2¢49
AskSize
56¢1.9K
98¢47
99¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA B200 compute per hour is above $4 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Identifier

KXB200MS-27FEB-4.000

SF Signal
SF Index
174.74
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$3K

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $4.00 55¢

Current share

1%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

117.0%

IY (No)

174.7%

Adj IY

175%

CRI

1

RV

44295%

VR

44.97

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

117.0%
174.7%
Adj IY
175%
1
RV
44295%
VR
44.97
IAR
1.3/h
Overround
1.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.