SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 above $0.75 in August 2026

Above $0.75 is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

Price history

43¢ current

6¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.75 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $0.75

Rank

#2 of 7

Leader

Above $0.50 86¢

Range

1¢-86¢

Family volume

$431

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-26AUG-0.750

Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

43¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

36¢

Ask

40¢

Spread

24h volume

$34

Family rank

#2 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Family volume

$431

Orderbook snapshot

36 / 40¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.2K
36¢414
35¢9
34¢200
33¢151
AskSize
40¢414
41¢9
42¢200
43¢87
98¢45

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $0.75 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-26AUG-0.750

SF Signal
SF Index
904.88
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$431

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $0.50 86¢

Current share

8%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

904.9%

IY (No)

262.4%

Adj IY

905%

CRI

2

RV

30478%

VR

21.80

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

904.9%
262.4%
Adj IY
905%
2
RV
30478%
VR
21.80
IAR
2.3/h
Overround
0.3%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.