SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 above $1.00 in January 2027

Above $1.00 is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

Price history

25¢ current

24¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $1.00

Rank

#3 of 7

Leader

Above $0.50 69¢

Range

4¢-69¢

Family volume

$187

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27JAN-1.000

Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

25¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

26¢

Ask

27¢

Spread

24h volume

$29

Family rank

#3 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Family volume

$187

Orderbook snapshot

26 / 27¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
26¢9
25¢314
24¢300
23¢200
4¢57
AskSize
27¢23
28¢400
31¢200
32¢73
98¢46

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27JAN-1.000

SF Signal
SF Index
480.36
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$187

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $0.50 69¢

Current share

16%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

480.4%

IY (No)

53.4%

Adj IY

480%

CRI

3

RV

65401%

VR

56.81

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

480.4%
53.4%
Adj IY
480%
3
RV
65401%
VR
56.81
IAR
2.2/h
Overround
0.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.