SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 above $1.25 in January 2027

Above $1.25 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

Price history

15¢ current

34¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.25 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $1.25

Rank

#4 of 7

Leader

Above $0.50 69¢

Range

4¢-69¢

Family volume

$187

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27JAN-1.250

Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

16¢

Ask

17¢

Spread

24h volume

$13

Family rank

#4 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Family volume

$187

Orderbook snapshot

16 / 17¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
16¢9
15¢314
14¢300
13¢200
3¢1.0K
AskSize
17¢583
98¢55
99¢1.3K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1.25 in January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27JAN-1.250

SF Signal
SF Index
907.35
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$187

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $0.50 69¢

Current share

7%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

907.4%

IY (No)

28.3%

Adj IY

907%

CRI

6

RV

65364%

VR

69.46

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

907.4%
28.3%
Adj IY
907%
6
RV
65364%
VR
69.46
IAR
2.0/h
Overround
0.7%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.