President's approval rating between 39.3 and 39.5 according to RealClearPolitics
39.3 to 39.5 is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will the President's approval rating.
Price history
28¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
If the President's approval rating is between 39.3 and 39.5% at 11:00 AM ET on May 29, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
39.3 to 39.5
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
39.6 to 39.8 29¢
Range
2¢-29¢
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.4
May 27, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will the President's approval rating
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President's approval rating is between 39.3 and 39.5% at 11:00 AM ET on May 29, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.4
Event family
Will the President's approval rating.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
39.6 to 39.8 29¢
Current share
14%
39.6 to 39.8
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.7
39.3 to 39.5
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.4
39.9 to 40.1
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-40.0
40.2 to 40.4
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-40.3
Below 39.0
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.0
40.5 to 40.7
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-40.6
39.0 to 39.2
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-39.1
Above 40.7
kalshi · KXAPRPOTUS-26MAY29-40.7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.