Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics
Leader sits at 49% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
39.9 to 40.1
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
40.2 to 40.4
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$15K
liquid
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the President's approval rating be
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.9 to 40.1
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-40.0
Will the President's approval rating be below 39.0 according to RealClearPolitics?: Below 39.0
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-39.0
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?: 40.2 to 40.4
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-40.3
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.6 to 39.8
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-39.7
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?: 40.5 to 40.7
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-40.6
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.0 to 39.2
KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN12-39.1
Analysis
This contract estimates a 24% chance that the President's approval rating will settle between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics. The market currently favors approval ratings in the 39.6 to 39.8 range (24% probability), with a clustering of outcomes between 39.0 and 40.4. The 41.1-41.3 outcome sits above the most probable range, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a meaningful approval increase from current levels. Approval ratings typically respond to economic data releases, policy announcements, and major news events. The resolution will depend on RealClearPolitics' aggregated polling methodology and the timing of new surveys. Contract pricing reflects uncertainty about near-term approval trajectory, with total trading volume concentrated in the 39-40 band.
- ›Current market consensus clusters approval outcomes between 39.0-40.4, placing 41.1-41.3 in the upper tail of expected outcomes
- ›The 41.1-41.3 contract is priced at 24%, comparable to the 39.3-39.5 band (22%), suggesting moderate tail-risk valuation rather than outlier status
- ›RealClearPolitics approval aggregate is updated regularly as new surveys release; resolution depends on polling frequency and timing of the measurement window
- ›Approval movements of 1+ points typically require significant economic or political shocks; incremental policy effects rarely produce sustained 0.2-point band shifts
- ›Volume concentration in 39-40 ranges ($2.3M across top three contracts) versus lower volume in higher approval bands suggests limited conviction in approval gains
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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