Rate of core PCE inflation above 0.2% in May 2026
Above 0.2% is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 61¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.
Price history
61¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.2% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 0.2%
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Above 0.0% 95¢
Range
3¢-95¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2
Jun 3, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
61¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
61 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.2% in May 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2
Event family
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 0.0% 95¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks: Spread, Depth, and Liquidity Analysis
Practical guide to analyzing orderbook data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Learn spread, depth, liquidity scoring, and executable edge calculation.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 61% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.