Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in September 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 0.1%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$852
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
115 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in May 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in May 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in May 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in May 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in June 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in June 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in June 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in August 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in August 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.0
Analysis
This market estimates a 96% probability that core PCE inflation will be positive (above 0.0%) in September 2026. The high probability reflects historical precedent: core inflation has remained positive through most recent economic cycles, making a deflationary outcome relatively unlikely. The main factors driving this assessment are the Federal Reserve's inflation-targeting framework, labor market conditions, and wage growth trends. Markets are pricing in meaningful probability only for higher inflation thresholds—41 cents for above 0.3%—suggesting traders expect modest rather than elevated inflation. The critical data point will be the PCE report release for September 2026, expected in early October, which will definitively resolve all related contracts. Until then, economic data releases throughout summer 2026, including employment reports and consumer spending indicators, will likely influence market expectations.
- ›Core PCE has remained above 0.0% annualized in all months since 2021 except during deflationary episodes, establishing a strong historical baseline
- ›The 96% probability implies a roughly 4% market-implied probability of deflation, which typically requires severe economic contraction or demand collapse
- ›Probability drops to 77% for above 0.2% and 41% for above 0.3%, indicating markets expect core PCE in the 0.0-0.3% range rather than higher levels
- ›Labor market tightness and wage growth dynamics will be primary drivers of whether September inflation meets or falls short of the 0.0% threshold
- ›The September 2026 PCE report, released in early October 2026, will provide the definitive settlement data
What moved the line
- Jun 4Above 0.3%↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above 0.3%↑3pp32→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above 0.3%↓3pp35→32¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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