Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in September 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 0.0%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$699
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 23, 2026
153 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in June 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in November 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26NOV-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in November 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26NOV-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in November 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26NOV-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in November 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26NOV-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26NOV-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.0
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.4
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in August 2026?: Above 0.3%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.3
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.2
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in August 2026?: Above 0.1%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.1
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in August 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.0
Analysis
This market reflects a 95% probability that core PCE inflation—the month-over-month percentage change excluding food and energy—will be positive rather than zero or negative in September 2026. The high probability reflects historical precedent: core PCE has rarely posted flat or negative monthly readings in recent decades, making a positive print the baseline expectation. What would shift this probability downward is either a sharp economic contraction, significant disinflation pressure, or unexpected policy shocks that suppress price growth. The September figure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in early October 2026. Near-term inflation data from August and earlier months, along with Federal Reserve communications about monetary policy direction, will likely influence expectations as the resolution date approaches. Current market prices suggest traders view a materially negative or zero reading as unlikely but possible under tail-risk scenarios.
- ›Core PCE has posted positive monthly readings in 19 of the last 24 months (through June 2026), establishing a strong historical baseline for positive inflation
- ›The market prices related outcomes differently: 57% probability for >0.2% versus 89% for >0.1% in August, showing traders expect modest but positive monthly gains
- ›Economic contraction, labor market deterioration, or unexpected demand destruction would be required to produce a zero or negative reading, representing genuine tail risk
- ›The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and recent rate decision history will inform market expectations about disinflationary pressure by September
- ›Related-month contracts suggest confidence in low-grade inflation persistence rather than outright deflation risk
What moved the line
- Jul 16Above 0.2%↑41pp20→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above 0.1%↓26pp85→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above 0.3%↓19pp36→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 0.2%↓12pp25→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 0.3%↑10pp21→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 31% · 0d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 21% · 0d
- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%last 74% · 7d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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