Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
This contract is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$638K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
KXINXPOS-26DEC31H1900-T6845.5
Market snapshot
Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. The displayed quote is 70¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $2K. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Family rank
—
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
70¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 1, 2027
24h volume
$2K
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Venue identifier: KXINXPOS-26DEC31H1900-T6845.5. Family volume: $638K.
Price history
70¢ current
+17¢Orderbook snapshot
70 / 71¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXINXPOS-26DEC31H1900-T6845.5
Event family
This market.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$638K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST 70¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 70% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.