SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 19, 2027371 days left

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 60000?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread.

Implied probability

95¢
$19K volume
$7K liquidity
3857% of event volume

Event outcomes

6

Family volume

$501

Best sibling

Above 100k 25¢

Ticker

KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-60000

Market snapshot

Above 60k in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 60000?. The displayed quote is 95¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $19K. In the Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above family, this outcome ranks #1 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC.

Outcome

Above 60k

Family rank

#1 of 6

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

95¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 19, 2027

Reported volume

$19K

Family context

6 outcomes · Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above

Quote range

25¢-94¢

Family leader

Above 60k 94¢

Last updated

May 13, 2026, 4:53 PM UTC · 11m ago

Venue identifier: KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-60000. Family volume: $501.

Price history

95¢ current

+18¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 20, 2026May 6, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

94 / 99¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
94¢7
92¢600
91¢100
90¢200
5¢452
AskSize
99¢7.3K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary is above 60000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 19, 2027

Identifier

KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-60000

SF Signal
SF Index
770.91
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$501

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Above 60k 94¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6.3%

IY (No)

1541.8%

Adj IY

771%

CRI

16

Overround

3.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.477

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

6.3%
1541.8%
Adj IY
771%
16
Overround
3.2%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.