Will Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026 be above 39.20 trillion
Leader sits at 94% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 60k
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 50k
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 26, 2027
382 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Ohio Republican gubernatorial primary be above 900000?: Above 900k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-GOVOHNOMR26-900000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 60000?: Above 60k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-60000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1500000?: Above 1.5M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1500000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 100000?: Above 100k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1600000?: Above 1.6M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1100000?: Above 1.1M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 70000?: Above 70k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-70000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1400000?: Above 1.4M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1400000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1300000?: Above 1.3M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1700000?: Above 1.7M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1700000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 50000?: Above 50k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-50000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 80000?: Above 80k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-80000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1200000?: Above 1.2M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 90000?: Above 90k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-KY4R26-90000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be above 1800000?: Above 1.8M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATETXR26-1800000
What moved the line
- May 7Above 900k↓37pp45→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 1.3M↑19pp56→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 1.1M↑15pp70→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 1.2M↑12pp69→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 1.4M↑10pp65→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.