Unemployment rate (U-3) above 4.0% in May
Above 4.0% is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above.
Price history
99¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.0%
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
Above 3.9% 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXU3-26MAY-T4.0
May 24, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 5, 2026
Identifier
KXU3-26MAY-T4.0
Event family
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above 3.9% 99¢
Current share
0%
Above 3.9%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T3.9
Above 4.0%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.0
Above 4.1%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.1
Above 4.2%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.2
Above 4.3%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.3
Above 4.4%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.4
Above 4.7%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.7
Above 4.8%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.8
Above 4.6%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.6
Above 4.5%
kalshi · KXU3-26MAY-T4.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.