Upper bound of the federal funds rate above 3.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting
Above 3.25% is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 11 inside Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above.
Price history
94¢ current
+27¢Contract brief
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 3.25%
Rank
#3 of 11
Leader
Above 2.75% 93¢
Range
2¢-93¢
Family volume
$23
Identifier
KXFED-26SEP-T3.25
May 28, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
88¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#3 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
Family volume
$23
Orderbook snapshot
88 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
Identifier
KXFED-26SEP-T3.25
Event family
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$23
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Above 2.75% 93¢
Current share
0%
Above 2.75%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T2.75
Above 3.00%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T3.00
Above 3.25%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T3.25
Above 3.50%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T3.50
Above 3.75%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T3.75
Above 4.00%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T4.00
Above 4.25%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T4.25
Above 5.00%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T5.00
Above 5.25%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T5.25
Above 4.50%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T4.50
Above 4.75%
kalshi · KXFED-26SEP-T4.75
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
medium
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: What $200M in Prediction Market Volume Is Telling Us
Fed rate prediction market analysis for 2026. Meeting-by-meeting probabilities, comparison with CME futures, cross-market signals, tail risk pricing, and historical accuracy.
Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In
Deep‑dive on Federal Reserve interest rates in 2026: SEP projections, inflation and unemployment paths, QT endgame, global central bank context, and what prediction markets are pricing for Fed cuts, inflation, and recession—plus actionable trading setups.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.