Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1.5M
Identifier
0xace3c72c...62a9
Jun 19, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$19K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.5M
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Identifier
0xace3c72c…62a9
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.5M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.