Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 is priced at 23¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
23¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Outcome
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$226K
Identifier
0x984ee41a...677d
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$226K
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x984ee41a…677d
Event family
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$226K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 23¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
low
Event type
political
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 23% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.