U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 27%, Polymarket at 37% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
15 contracts
Polymarket
37%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$397K
20 contracts
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 27¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (27¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSENR-P4
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P8
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-MNSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASEND-P2
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Democrats, 4+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P4
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Republicans, 30+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-WYSENR-P30
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHSEND-P6
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Cluster 2
Will the U.S
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
0x5db999…6846
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
0x80ebf0…1139
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027
KXALIENS-27
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?: Rating reduced
KXCREDITRATING-26DEC31
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?: Before 2027
KXUSFUND-27
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
0xe723e5…0a20
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
0x984ee4…677d
Cluster 3
Will Republicans win
Cluster 4
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
0xefc69f…c986
Cluster 5
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
CONTROLS-2026-D
Cluster 6
Will the Republican Party loses majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives before the 2026 midterms
What moved the line
- Apr 29Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?↓31pp38→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?↑30pp8→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Rating reduced↓14pp35→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Republicans, 4+ pts↑14pp16→30¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Democrats, 6+ pts↓14pp30→16¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.