Before September 2026 · Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before
Before September 2026 is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before.
Price history
7¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before September 2026
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before 2027 10¢
Range
7¢-10¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXIRANEMBASSY-27-26SEP
May 28, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$34
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXIRANEMBASSY-27-26SEP
Event family
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before 2027 10¢
Current share
3%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.