14 · How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026
14 is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?.
Price history
2¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
14
Rank
#7 of 8
Leader
8 29¢
Range
1¢-29¢
Family volume
$754K
Identifier
0xa9433e26...4ba0
Jun 8, 2026, 5:25 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$146K
Family rank
#7 of 8
8 outcomes · How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$754K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa9433e26…4ba0
Event family
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$754K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
8 29¢
Current share
19%
8
polymarket · 0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda
9
polymarket · 0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692
10
polymarket · 0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86
11
polymarket · 0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a
12
polymarket · 0xabb74975229f7e4fcd68de841df580bfb6b1fd6a43c3f2607612eed07b93f6b1
13
polymarket · 0xf06d28ca471354ee70ec6e1dff6284a15ced43bcaa70fafcdc6cc32f485598c8
14
polymarket · 0xa9433e26ddb6e037fd5c7c7451f77829740822fa12e2bdf82406624661434ba0
15+
polymarket · 0x43ede6f447b4eb54904ca21aaa7d98a73a95a47ccf2195ea82073749d8ea45e9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.